{File under Boomer tales}
Robert Reich, who is, like me, surfing the advancing wave of Baby Boomers, suggests that we can (and maybe are the only ones who can) solve our own problem. [April 9, 2010]
More specifically he recommends allowing more immigration and the increased payroll taxes that immigration would bring with it. (Don’t confuse immigration with illegal immigration.)
Reich quotes Ben Bernanke:
Fed Chair Ben Bernanke … listed the choices. “To avoid large and unsustainable budget deficits,” he said in a speech on Wednesday, “the nation must choose among higher taxes, modifications to entitlement programs such as Social Security and Medicare, less spending on everything else from education to defense, or some combination of the above.”
And then:
Bernanke is almost certainly right about “some combination,” but he leaves out one other possible remedy that should be included in that combination: Immigration.
Reich reminds us that immigrants are younger, want to work and to “succeed” and given a chance can make a difference in the economics of the US.
I think there’s a gem of truth here—but Reich is limiting this discussion to the US economy and not looking at global solutions. Yes, physical immigration and local (read “US”) taxation of income could make a big difference locally. But we’re in our current employment crisis in large measure because we have become global economically while not becoming global in terms of social policy. And maybe we just can’t do that.
And also implicit in Reich’s rhetoric is that we as old timers will need to be taken care of. Certainly we’re all playing the lottery of life, but we’re far less decrepit than people were at our age even 50 years ago.
When I began programming computers at the age of 16 (super-computers, of course, not PCs)[1], I thought the age of software was upon us and there would be a never-ending stream of challenges and problems that I’d be able to throw my intellect at. Basically forever.
But, in the last couple of decades a lot has changed. First, beginning at most 20 years ago, software has been written by smaller and smaller groups—a few hundred engineers at Microsoft could develop software to be used by many millions of people.[2] And then, more recently, software engineering has spread around the world with teams in Russia, India, China and many other places, now taking on development tasks. The economic and personnel growth in those parts of the world has stayed localized, reducing the employment chances is the US and therefore the tax base for care of soon-to-be-late-life boomers. It’s clear that the standard of living has to “level out.”
I think that the boomers will face the challenge by continuing to be productive long past the time when our forebears would have retired. And that our productivity will be in the intellectual sector, not the “sweat” sector. Boomers can “give back” in terms of wisdom, stories and experience. And maybe it’s not a case of giving back, but of forward-looking contribution to the active life of the present day. If the Internet survives (I have definite opinions on the fragility of the Internet!), and since online nobody cares if you’re a dog, nobody cares if you have gray hair, or none for that matter. If you’re smart, you can still make it. But, be prepared for living a simpler life.[3] And your competitors will be all over the globe – as will be your customers.
[1] The photo is the CDC 6400 at Northwestern University in 1968 – I used to be a spin-doctor for political candidates, and that’s one of them in the photo. In those days you were “modern” if you were looking at a computer printout. And we all wore those narrow ties. And blue jeans.
[2] For the moment I’m ignoring free and open source developments like Linux, Gnu and many others. But they can’t really be ignored, so suspend disbelief for a moment if you will and ride with the current argument.
[3] More about the simpler life later on. It means less moving your body around the globe on airplanes, and more audio and video conferencing.
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