JD Lasica has just published a report Identity in the Age of Cloud Computing, based on an Aspen Institute meeting in mid-2008. It is one of three such Aspen Institute reports he has written, and all are available as free ebooks.
First, here’s my own take on cloud computing in the future. I can see that within a very few years (maybe now for some of us), many of us will not know (or care to know) where our data reside. Instead, we’ll be using our home computers as netbooks, connecting to our databases, friend-networks, profiles and documents, and we really won’t care where the data live. Today we see this happening with the rise of Google Docs (documents), gmail (Yahoo and Hotmail too, of course for years), and I see more and more people content to “just Google” to find answers to questions and no longer needing to have all of the books sitting on bookshelves at home.
For years I have been replacing my worn-out old computers with new and more powerful computers, making a 2x to 5x improvement in speed each time[1]. However, I’m increasingly putting my documents online (Google docs), and my email is being retained on servers for online use. My most powerful computer is the iMac in my music/video studio, which is not my primary workstation (I can keep it cranking for hours converting video from one format to another). My primary is a laptop system. And at times I’m going out to meetings with just my iPhone and no computer at all
– because the iPhone has enough connectivity and power to do what I need. I know I’m not unique, and in fact as a power user I may be carrying far more compute power with me than 90% of the populace, who have moved into the cloud even faster than I have.[2]
Why does JD bring identity into the equation? Well, if my data is no longer physically on my computer, then what’s left to me is identity. And in a sense identity has also become disconnected from my physical computer(s) and consequently harder for me to locate. And identity is rapidly becoming portable, though many companies would prefer that it not be.
Some ideas from JD’s report:
“The Internet and a host of new communications technologies have transformed the concept of identity and redefined our relationships…” “Growing numbers of digital natives now define themselves by their Web presence as well as their real-world presence.” “…mass markets give way to millions of niche markets and … culture changes from one in which companies push products to passive consumers into … empowered users pull down products and services that meet their needs…” “It appears that the full cloud, in its startling richness, remains at least a decade away,” “The public may not be familiar with the term, but many are already doing cloud computing. We have been using Web applications for years without any concern about where the applications actually run.” “The cloud has become our entertainment network: we are spending hundreds of millions of hours on sites like YouTube, Hulu and Flickr.” “The term cloud computing, which came into wide use in tech circles only in early 2007, does have a specific, technical meaning. It refers to a collection of resources—applications, platforms, raw computing power and storage, and managed services (like antivirus detection)—delivered over the Internet.” “While Amazon’s utility computing solution chiefly targets small businesses and consumers, companies such as Salesforce.com and Netsuite are targeting businesses of all sizes with both virtual hosting and software suites to run their data.” “More than a decade ago Oracle CEO Larry Ellison declared that the network would become the computer, …”
Some final thoughts from me:
I am concerned about the fragility of the network. When our data live in the cloud and networks fail, we lose access to our data. This happens to me more often than I’d like – probably a couple of times a month in my home office! What will happen in an age of netbook[2] computers? I think that ultimately the cloud is going to be partially collocated in your home or office, as well as off in some big server farm in Oregon (or pick any other state, you’re probably right). I think this will be solved by a combination of local storage (Network Attached Storage [NAS] perhaps, which is what I use right now), local processing power (I have a big computer in the studio and my laptop computer can be used to control it), and remote processing and delivery of certain services that really belong out in the cloud closer to the customer.
The full cloud … a decade away? I doubt it. We’re all using aspects of the cloud every day. It will progress rapidly. However, I do think that full acceptance of cloud computing is going to require a generational shift — in other words, today’s digerati over the age of say 40 may not be able to shift to cloud computing at all. Those in their 50s and 60s are still sending documents around via email rather than collaborating online.
Cheap computing and cheap communication? Well, I don’t find communication cheap right now. My phone bill used to be $25 a month. Now it’s $100 for a landline and close to that for a mobile plan with adequate data capabilities. I buy cloud computing and they nickel and dime me to death…the starting price has gotten better (around $25), but as I use more bandwidth and CPU power, it becomes more expensive than owning my own servers. Someone has to make a profit somewhere, and the guys operating the cloud are first in line, which is OK by me, but I don’t want anyone to think I’m promoting services that are by their nature the cheapest solution to all problems.
Abstracted and scalable are the two adjectives I like to use the most when comparing cloud computing to other computing. And those are the characteristics I most like about cloud computing.
Yeah, it is where we’re going. Without question. Most certainly. And we’re going to get there soon.
[1] I just upgraded from a 1.5GHz PowerBook to a 2.93GHz core duo Macbook Pro, and got a 5x improvement in speed, and believe me it is noticeable. I was waiting up to 60 seconds at times for the PowerBook to respond to a click, and the CPU was cranking at 100% the entire time I had my hands on its keyboard. The new computer generally loafs along at 25% CPU utilization except when I need something done fast.
[2] One of the odd forces pushing people toward cloud email, in my opinion, is the unreliability of their home computers. Get a virus and your email might be destroyed. Hard drive breaks down and your email is gone forever. Upgrade to a new computer and start all over again? Nah. It’s far easier if your email is at gmail because when you get a new computer your mail is still in exactly the state it was before you switched. And when you get off the plane in New Delhi, your mail is still available to you at the hotel (or Internet café) even if your laptop computer is back in San Francisco.
[3] Bonus: A recent Infoworld article on netbooks.
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